A recent breakup event in low-Earth orbit has sparked concerns about space safety after the upper stage of a Chinese rocket broke apart near the Starlink constellation. The incident occurred on June 9 when the Zhuque-2E rocket reached orbit with two satellites providing direct-to-cell communications, but failed to perform a disposal burn as expected.
The breakup event was confirmed by the US Space Force in a post on space-track.org, a website used by the military to distribute orbit data to the public. The Space Force reported that the tracked pieces of debris are being incorporated into routine conjunction assessment to support spaceflight safety, but have not added any of the debris fragments to the official catalog of human-made space objects.
According to Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at the orbital intelligence company LeoLabs, the fragmentation event likely generated 100 to 150 pieces of debris. The main body of the rocket’s upper stage is now orbiting between 208 miles and 263 miles (335-by-424 kilometers) at an inclination of 54.5 degrees to the equator.
The breakup poses a threat to hundreds of Starlink satellites, particularly those providing direct-to-device connectivity and newly launched satellites, which fly at lower altitudes than the bulk of the Starlink constellation. However, the good news is that this altitude is low enough for aerodynamic drag to cause most of the Zhuque-2E debris to reenter the atmosphere within a matter of months.
The incident highlights China’s growing contribution to the space junk problem. After decades of leaving spent rocket bodies in orbit, launch operators in most countries now reserve enough fuel to steer their upper stages back to Earth for controlled reentries. Rocket bodies attributed to Russia and the former Soviet Union account for the bulk of the launch-related debris in long-lived orbits, followed by China and the United States.
However, the mass of Chinese rocket bodies in these long-lived orbits has grown by more than 150 percent in the past five years, according to a new analysis by Space Domain Awareness expert Jim Shell. The increase comes as China ramps up launches of its own megaconstellations designed to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink.
Rocket bodies are the most concerning sources of space debris because they are typically fairly large in size and mass, often with residual propellant and high-pressure gases that can trigger an explosion. There is no way to maneuver or dispose of them if left abandoned in orbit after releasing their payloads.
McKnight characterized the recent breakup of the Zhuque-2E rocket as a “slight space safety issue,” but the trend is not good. China’s Long March 6A rocket has an especially bad track record, including two explosions that littered a higher-altitude low-Earth orbit with more than 1,000 debris fragments.
The incident serves as a reminder of the importance of responsible space operations and the need for launch operators to prioritize space safety. As the number of satellites in orbit continues to grow, the risk of collisions and other space-related hazards also increases. It is essential that governments and industry leaders work together to develop effective strategies for mitigating these risks and ensuring the long-term sustainability of space exploration.
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